Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Therapeutics strategies and Product Pipeline Review 2017
The market for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is expected to grow from $1.92 billion in 2016 to $2.96 billion in 2023, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3%. This growth will be driven by the rapidly expanding prevalence population, due to increasingly aging populations and sedentary lifestyles, as well as increases in the diagnosis and treatment rates, due to rising disease awareness among the public. The increased uptake of recently approved and emerging branded therapeutics, in favor of lower-cost generic products, will also propel market growth.
The T2DM market contains a wide range of drugs that are used to treat patients at different points in the treatment algorithm. The drug therapies are broadly classified into insulin therapies and non-insulin agents. The patient share for these categories varies from country to country.
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Majority of T2DM Pipeline in Early Stages of Development, while Late Stages are Dominated by Fixed-Dose Combination and Generic or Biosimilar Products
The pipeline for T2DM is large, with 609 products at a disclosed stage of development, although the majority of these drugs are at an early stage. Some 52% of the pipeline is in the Preclinical stage, while 17% is in the Discovery stage. 28% of the pipeline is in clinical development, but only 2% is in the Pre-registration stage.
Higher levels of innovation are apparent in the early-stage pipeline, which may lead to considerable improvements over the existing range of products in terms of safety and efficacy, in the long term. The late-stage pipeline contains a high proportion of products from established drug classes, with improved dosing regimens and administration routes compared with currently marketed products. By 2023 Novo Nordisk’s OG-217SC (oral semaglutide) is expected to be on the market. It will achieve a high level of commercial success because it requires once-daily oral administration, and will be competing with subcutaneous GLP-1 receptor agonists. This means that unmet needs relating to patient convenience and ease of use will be addressed over the forecast period. Furthermore, the number and high level of diversity of these products suggest that there is strong potential for unmet needs to be addressed in the coming years.
Key Drugs Expected to Maintain Market Dominance
The current top-selling drugs – Januvia, Victoza, Novolog, and Invokana – are expected to remain dominant within the disease cluster and are all – along with many other top-selling products – indicated for T2DM. However, three of the anticipated top 10 best-selling drugs of 2023 will be new to the South-East Asia market. These products are expected to reach blockbuster status, indicating the strength and diversity of both the market and the pipeline for T2DM.
Novo Nordisk’s Victoza is expected to generate $3.4 billion globally by 2023, rising from $2.9 billion in 2016 at a CAGR of 1.9%. Victoza is the market leader in the GLP-1 segment in the assessed South-East Asia countries. Invokana, meanwhile, has established itself as the leading drug among SGLT-2 inhibitors, generating $1.43 billion in revenue globally in 2016.
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Posted by
Vivian Dsena
on Monday November 20 2017, 7:30 AM EDT.
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